The Last Chopper Out of Saigon/Kabul

Thanks to a decision by Biden (that will go down in history as one of America's greatest foreign policy and strategic blunders of the last few decades) America is rerunning its humiliating evacuation from Saigon (this time from Kabul).

At the cost of countless lives, $1 trillion and a whole heap of equipment America has realised that the 20 year war in Afghanistan was unwinnable.

Whilst that may well be the case, what Biden failed to grasp when he made the decision to withdraw (although he will be grasping that now) is that the Taliban will takeover Afghanistan in a matter of weeks, and establish the country as the go to address for every terrorist group on the planet.

The war, in the form envisaged by America when it entered Afghanistan 20 years ago, was unwinnable. However, training a local army to hold out against insurgency takes more than air support and high tech equipment (especially when you withdraw that). Like it or not, if America wanted to keep the Taliban out, then it needed to maintain a presence there to stiffen the resolve of the local army and to ensure that they were properly trained.

As per Johnny Merer MP:

"“If you are looking to rebuild an entire nation’s military capability to withstand ever-evolving adversaries, such as ISIS or the Taliban, you cannot do it in one or two decades. You can get the bulk of it done in that time, but the technical expertise of learning skills like fighting close combined arms battles or maturing a high-risk man-hunting special forces capability — the bedrock of any counter-insurgency campaign — takes a far greater period of time. 

I know this, because that’s what I did in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010 in Afghanistan. It’s technical; it’s hard work; it requires a long-lasting commitment. But done properly, it is absolutely worth it in terms of reducing an insurgency’s momentum, building capability and, crucially, confidence in partnering forces, and critically reducing civilian casualties while retaining Afghan consent.”

On July 8th Biden said:

"“the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”

Biden has badly misjudged this, and the consequences of his misjudgement will be felt by the world for decades to come!