In a seismic shift that's sending shockwaves through Westminster, Conservative MP Danny Kruger has defected to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, marking the first such crossover by a sitting Tory lawmaker. Announced on September 15, 2025, this high-profile switch underscores the deepening crisis within the Conservative Party, already reeling from electoral defeats and internal divisions. As the Tories grapple with leadership under Kemi Badenoch, Kruger's move signals potential mass defections and a further erosion of their voter base. In this in-depth analysis, we explore the background of Danny Kruger's defection to Reform UK, the motivations behind it, and why it spells disaster for the Conservatives' future.
Who Is Danny Kruger? A Profile of the Defector
Danny Kruger, the MP for East Wiltshire since his election in 2019, has long been a prominent figure on the Conservative benches. A former special adviser to Boris Johnson and David Cameron, Kruger is known for his socially conservative views, advocacy for levelling up, and vocal support for Brexit. He served on the influential Social Justice Commission and has been a key ally to right-wing Tory factions.
Under the new Conservative leadership of Kemi Badenoch—elected just months after the party's humiliating defeat in the July 2024 general election—Kruger was appointed as a shadow work and pensions minister. This role positioned him at the heart of the party's opposition strategy, making his departure all the more damaging. Kruger's intellectual heft and grassroots appeal have made him a rising star, and his defection robs the Tories of a bridge between the party's traditional base and its more populist elements.
Born in 1975 to the journalist and author Michael Kruger, Danny entered politics after a career in policy and think tanks, including stints at the Centre for Policy Studies. His parliamentary record includes pushing for tougher welfare reforms and family-focused policies, aligning him closely with Reform UK's emphasis on cultural conservatism and economic nationalism.
The Dramatic Announcement: "The Conservative Party Is Over"
Kruger's defection was unveiled at a packed Reform UK press conference in London, where he stood alongside party leader Nigel Farage. In a blunt statement, Kruger declared: "The Conservative Party is over, over as a governing force, over as a credible opposition." He criticised the Tories for abandoning their core principles on immigration, net zero policies, and fiscal responsibility, accusing them of being "captured by the liberal elite."
Farage hailed the move as a "game-changer," predicting it would inspire a "stampede" of Conservative MPs and activists to Reform. The announcement came just weeks after Reform UK's strong showing in local elections, where the party scooped up disaffected Tory voters in the Home Counties and the North. Kruger's East Wiltshire seat, a traditional Conservative stronghold, now becomes a flashpoint for the next by-election, potentially handing Reform their first parliamentary gain from a defection.
This isn't Kruger's first flirtation with Reform. In recent months, he's been spotted at party events and has publicly praised Farage's unapologetic stance on issues like stopping the boats and scrapping inheritance tax. Insiders say the final straw was Badenoch's perceived softening on green policies, which Kruger views as electoral suicide.
Why Did Danny Kruger Defect? Unpacking the Motivations
Kruger's switch to Reform UK isn't an isolated act of rebellion—it's symptomatic of broader fractures within the Conservative Party. Here's a breakdown of the key drivers:
Ideological Drift in the Tories: Kruger has repeatedly lambasted the Conservatives for straying from their 2019 manifesto promises. Under Rishi Sunak and now Badenoch, the party has been accused of flip-flopping on key issues like housing targets and energy costs, alienating the Red Wall voters who propelled Boris Johnson to victory.
Reform's Rising Momentum: With polls showing Reform UK polling at 20-25% nationally, the party is siphoning votes from the right. Farage's charisma and media savvy contrast sharply with the Tories' image of infighting and incompetence. Kruger's defection validates Reform's claim to be the true home for patriotic conservatism.
Personal Ambition and Frustration: As a shadow minister, Kruger reportedly clashed with party whips over his outspoken criticism of net migration figures. Defection offers him a platform to lead Reform's policy on work and welfare, potentially positioning him for a cabinet role in a future Farage-led government.
The Post-Election Hangover: The Conservatives' 2024 wipeout—losing 251 seats and their century-long grip on power—has left a vacuum. High-profile exits like Suella Braverman's resignation and rumoured wobbles from other MPs have created a toxic atmosphere, pushing talents like Kruger toward the exit.
These factors combine to make Kruger's move a calculated bet on Reform's upward trajectory, leaving the Tories exposed on their right flank.
Why Danny Kruger's Defection Bodes Ill for the Tories: A Perfect Storm
For the already battered Conservatives, Kruger's defection is more than a PR nightmare—it's a harbinger of existential threats. Here's why this spells doom:
1. Eroding Credibility and Unity
Badenoch's nascent leadership was meant to unify the party around a "renewal" agenda. Instead, losing a key ally like Kruger just months in exposes her vulnerability. Analysts warn it could trigger a domino effect, with up to a dozen Tory MPs rumoured to be in talks with Reform. The party's conference next month now looms as a battleground for loyalists versus defectors.
2. Electoral Peril in Key Seats
East Wiltshire is winnable for Reform in a by-election, especially with Kruger's local popularity. This could mirror the 1983 SDP-Liberal Alliance splits that nearly destroyed the Tories under Thatcher. Nationally, Reform's vote share is projected to hit 30% in Tory heartlands by 2029, per YouGov polls, forcing Conservatives into a brutal three-way squeeze with Labour and the Lib Dems.
3. Boost for Reform UK's Legitimacy
Farage's party has struggled with perceptions of being a protest vehicle rather than a governing force. Recruiting a sitting MP like Kruger—complete with his policy expertise—lends Reform parliamentary gravitas. It also amplifies their fundraising and media coverage, accelerating the Tories' decline into irrelevance.
4. Long-Term Voter Realignment
Kruger's exit highlights a generational shift: Younger, socially conservative voters are ditching the establishment for outsiders like Farage. The Tories' failure to counter this—evident in their tepid response to issues like grooming gangs and cultural erosion—risks ceding the right-wing space permanently. If Reform secures 50+ seats in 2029, the Conservatives could be reduced to a rump party.
In essence, this defection isn't just a loss of one MP; it's a vote of no confidence in the Tory brand, accelerating their slide toward opposition wilderness.
Broader Implications: Reform UK on the Ascendancy?
Kruger's move catapults Reform UK into the spotlight as the de facto opposition on cultural and economic issues. Farage, ever the strategist, is already touting it as proof that "the people have spoken." For Badenoch, the path forward involves a radical reset—perhaps embracing harder lines on immigration and taxes—but time is short. Without swift action, more defections could follow, turning the Conservative Party into a historical footnote.
Conclusion: Time for the Tories to Wake Up
Danny Kruger's defection to Reform UK is a clarion call for the Conservatives: Adapt or perish. As the first crack in their parliamentary armour, it exposes the fragility of a party adrift. For voters disillusioned with Westminster's status quo, Reform offers a rebellious alternative; for the Tories, it's a stark reminder that loyalty alone won't save them. Will Badenoch rally the troops, or will this be the beginning of the end? Only time—and the ballot box—will tell.
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