Ed Miliband, the UK’s Energy Secretary, has staked his political legacy on an ambitious vision: a decarbonised electricity grid by 2030 under the Clean Power 2030 (CP2030) plan. Promising lower bills, energy independence, and a green jobs boom, Miliband’s net zero agenda was sold as a panacea for Britain’s energy woes. But the recent cancellation of Hornsea Four, a flagship 2.4-gigawatt offshore wind project by Danish energy giant Ørsted, has delivered a devastating blow to his plans, exposing the fragility of his policies and raising serious questions about their costs and impact on energy security. This is not just a setback—it’s a hammer blow that threatens to unravel Miliband’s entire net zero fantasy.
The Hornsea Four Cancellation: A Death Knell for CP2030
Hornsea Four was meant to be a cornerstone of CP2030, contributing significantly to the UK’s target of quadrupling offshore wind capacity to 60GW by 2030. Ørsted, a global leader in offshore wind, had secured a Contract for Difference (CfD) in the government’s Allocation Round 6 (AR6) at a strike price of £82.20 per megawatt-hour (MWh), more than double the £40/MWh offered in the failed 2023 auction under the Conservatives. This generous subsidy, funded by consumer bills, was supposed to ensure the project’s viability. Yet, on May 7, 2025, Ørsted announced it was pulling the plug, citing “ballooning costs” and “increased execution risk” due to the complexity of installing 180 giant turbines off England’s east coast.
The cancellation is catastrophic for Miliband’s timeline. CP2030 was already lagging, with 2024 capacity additions falling short of targets. Hornsea Four’s 2.4GW was a critical piece of the puzzle, and its loss makes the 2030 goal mathematically and practically unattainable without massive, unrealistic accelerations in other projects. As one X post bluntly put it, “Orsted Cancels Hornsea Four and Kills CP2030.” The project’s collapse undermines Miliband’s claim that clean power by 2030 is “achievable, cheaper, and makes our country more secure.”
Why Ørsted Walked Away: The Economics Don’t Add Up
Ørsted’s decision to abandon Hornsea Four is a stark indictment of the economic realities Miliband’s policies ignore. The company pointed to rising costs across the supply chain—turbines, electrical equipment, and construction—as well as heightened risks in project execution. Offshore wind is capital-intensive, and global supply chain constraints have driven up costs for materials and skilled labour. The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) warned that the rushed 2030 timeline could force the UK to pay a premium for limited supply chain capacity, a prophecy now fulfilled.
Even with a 15-year price guarantee, Ørsted deemed Hornsea Four unviable. This suggests that the CfD strike price, while generous compared to previous rounds, was insufficient to offset the project’s spiralling costs and risks. Miliband’s willingness to let Ørsted rebid Hornsea Three at a higher subsidy in AR6—after lower subsidies threatened its cancellation—shows a pattern of bending to industry demands, yet even this wasn’t enough for Hornsea Four. Critics argue that such flexibility renders CfD contracts meaningless, as companies can simply hold out for better terms, all while consumers foot the bill.
Ørsted’s exit also reflects broader market instability. Posts on X highlight “rising costs” and “market instability” as key factors, with one user noting that without “vastly more in subsidies,” such projects are doomed. The company’s decision to cut its global investment plans by 25% earlier in 2025 further underscores its scepticism about the profitability of Miliband’s wind-driven vision.
Soaring Costs: A Burden on Households
Miliband’s net zero policies were sold on the promise of lower bills, with Labour claiming a £300 reduction per household by 2030. Yet, the reality is grim. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that subsidies for renewables could cost £19.7 billion annually by 2030, up from £12.3 billion, potentially adding £255 per year to household bills. The Renewable Energy Foundation estimates green subsidies already cost £25.8 billion annually, or £900 per household, with schemes like the Renewable Obligation adding £89.26 per bill.
The AR6 auction alone, which included Hornsea Four, is estimated to add £50-£150 per household annually to fund 131 clean energy projects, many owned by foreign firms like Ørsted and Iberdrola. Miliband’s officials have admitted that renewable energy levies will push bills higher in the “short to medium term,” contradicting his public claims. With the energy price cap set to rise by £85-£100 in April 2025, taking typical bills to £1,823, households are feeling the pinch now, not the promised relief.
These costs are compounded by Miliband’s reliance on subsidies to prop up an uneconomic industry. Offshore wind, despite its scale, remains dependent on government handouts, with no clear path to market competitiveness. The UK’s electricity prices are already among the highest in the developed world, driven by gas but exacerbated by renewable levies. Miliband’s refusal to acknowledge these “hidden” costs, as Tory MP Nick Timothy has pointed out, obscures the true burden of his policies.
Energy Security: A Dangerous Gamble
Miliband argues that CP2030 will deliver energy independence by reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets, citing the price spikes following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But the Hornsea Four cancellation exposes the fragility of this strategy. Offshore wind is intermittent, requiring backup from gas-fired plants or costly storage solutions when the wind doesn’t blow. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has warned that a quadrupling of grid flexibility—equivalent to 10.4GW—is needed by 2030, meaning millions of households and businesses must cut consumption during low-wind periods. This is not energy security; it’s rationing dressed up as progress.
The loss of Hornsea Four further tightens the UK’s capacity margins. Without its 2.4GW, the grid is more vulnerable to supply shortfalls, especially as ageing nuclear and coal plants are phased out. Miliband’s accelerated timeline leaves little room for error, and Ørsted’s withdrawal signals that even major developers lack confidence in delivering on his schedule. The UK’s industrial electricity prices, already the highest globally, reflect the strain of this transition, undermining competitiveness for energy-intensive sectors like steel.
Miliband’s dismissal of critics as peddling “nonsense and lies” ignores legitimate concerns about energy reliability. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage has argued for self-sufficiency in gas and oil, pointing to the North Sea’s potential to stabilise supply. While Miliband claims renewables will shield the UK from global shocks, the reality is that his policies leave the nation dependent on intermittent wind and foreign-owned infrastructure, with profits flowing to companies like Ørsted rather than UK taxpayers.
A Hammer Blow to Miliband and Net Zero
The cancellation of Hornsea Four is more than a project failure; it’s a public humiliation for Miliband and a referendum on his net zero ideology. His policies hinge on the flawed assumption that throwing subsidies at renewables will deliver affordability and security. Ørsted’s exit proves otherwise, showing that even deep-pocketed developers won’t invest when costs outweigh returns. The collapse of this “crown jewel” project, as one X post described it, leaves Miliband’s credibility in tatters and CP2030 on life support.
Miliband’s refusal to confront the economic and practical barriers—supply chain bottlenecks, execution risks, and consumer costs—has turned his green dream into a nightmare. The UKERC’s warning that the 2030 rush could inflate costs and miss local content opportunities has been vindicated. Meanwhile, NESO’s head, Fintan Slye, has admitted that lower bills are not guaranteed, undermining Miliband’s core promise.
The broader net zero agenda is now at a crossroads. Public support for climate action remains strong, but polling suggests it wanes when costs hit wallets. Miliband’s failure to deliver tangible benefits risks fuelling scepticism, especially as Reform UK and conservative critics gain traction by framing net zero as a costly folly. The steel industry’s struggles, wrongly blamed on green policies, highlight the political peril of ignoring industrial and consumer pain.
Conclusion: Time for a Reality Check
Ed Miliband’s net zero policies are unravelling under the weight of their own contradictions. The cancellation of Hornsea Four by Ørsted is a damning verdict on his reliance on subsidised, intermittent renewables to deliver energy security and affordability. Soaring costs, estimated to add hundreds to household bills, and the loss of a critical project have exposed CP2030 as a pipe dream. Miliband’s refusal to level with the public about these trade-offs only deepens the crisis.
The UK needs a pragmatic energy strategy that balances decarbonisation with reliability and cost. Miliband’s ideological zeal has led to a dangerous gamble, leaving households poorer and the grid more vulnerable. It’s time to abandon the fantasy of a wind-powered utopia by 2030 and face reality: net zero, as currently pursued, is neither affordable nor secure. The Hornsea Four debacle is a wake-up call—will Miliband listen, or double down on disaster?
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