Rachel Reeves' Budget Leak Fiasco: From Tax Rise Revolt to Gilt Yield Panic and OBR Fairy Tales – Labour's 24-Hour Meltdown Proves Starmer's Crew Have Lost the Bloody Plot

Oh, what a gloriously shambolic 24 hours it's been in the fever swamps of Westminster – the kind of frantic flapdoodle that makes you wonder if the Treasury's got a poltergeist on the payroll, or if Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer are just auditioning for a sequel to Yes Minister where the ministers are the ones getting played. As of this drizzly November morning in 2025, the Chancellor's pre-Budget purdah has morphed into a full-blown circus of leaks, U-turns, and desperate spin that's got the bond markets twitching like a cat on a hot tin roof. Pull the other one, lads – this isn't strategy; it's survival mode for a government that's already knackered after five months in the hot seat. And bless their cotton socks, the fourth estate's lapping it up like it's gospel, without so much as a raised eyebrow.

Let's rewind the tape on this 24-hour trainwreck, shall we? Because if there's one thing the PalArse loves, it's calling time on the elite's amateur hour.

The Midnight Leak: Tax Rises Axed Amid Backbench Mutiny

It kicked off late last night – around 10pm on November 13, if the whispers from reliable Westminster wonks are to be believed – when the first tremors hit the wires. Word slithered out from Treasury insiders that Reeves, facing a full-scale revolt from her own red-wall rebels and blue-chip biz types, was ditching those whisper-shouted plans for whopping income tax hikes. You know the ones: the stealthy 2p whack on basic rates that was meant to plug the £22 billion "black hole" without anyone noticing till the PAYE slips dropped like confetti.

Instead? A mad scramble to fiddle with allowances – think freezing the personal allowance longer than a bad blind date, or tweaking the marriage tax break into something resembling actual policy – plus a scattergun raid on everything from capital gains to, God help us, possibly even pasty taxes redux. Opposition? Fiercer than a Yorkshire terrier on steroids. Backbenchers were reportedly baying for blood, with whispers of a "no confidence in the whips" motion bubbling under the tea cups. By midnight, the FT's overnight desk was alight, and even the becalmed Bloomberg terminals perked up. This wasn't a leak; it was a haemorrhage.

Morning Mayhem: Gilt Yields Spike as Markets Smell the Rat

Cue the dawn chorus of doom on November 14. Bond traders, those unflappable souls in Canary Wharf, took one look at the overnight drip-feed and hit the panic button. UK 10-year gilt yields – that canary in the fiscal coalmine – surged 12 basis points in the opening hour, clocking in at 4.38% by 9am. That's the sharpest intra-day jump since the mini-Budget meltdown of 2022, when Liz Truss's libertarians turned the pound into confetti. Why the jitters? Simple: ditching direct tax hikes screams "we can't fill the hole without spooking the horses," and investors hate nothing more than a chancellor cornered into creative accounting.

The knock-on? Mortgage lenders twitching, pension funds recalibrating, and the FTSE 100 dipping its toe in the red before lunch. As one City sage put it (off the record, natch): "Reeves just advertised that Labour's got no plan B – or C, for that matter. This is Truss 2.0, but with worse tailoring." By 10am, the headlines were screaming "Budget U-Turn Rocks Markets," and No.10's spin doctors were sweating bullets.

The Treasury's Hail Mary: "It Was All Planned, Honest Guv" – And the Media's Willing Suspension of Disbelief

Enter stage left: the counter-leak, dropped like a dud firework around 11:15am from what smells suspiciously like a No.11 back channel. Cue the noble fiction – this whole tax-tinkering pivot? "All part of the grand design," apparently, because the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is now projecting that pesky black hole to shrink to a mere £18 billion by Spring, thanks to "rosier growth forecasts" and "prudent fiscal tweaks." Pull the other one, Rachel – we've heard this guff before, from Sunak's sunny uplands to Osborne's austerity arias. It's the political equivalent of a chocolate teapot: melts under the slightest scrutiny.

And here's the real kicker – the journos are buying it wholesale. Alex Wickham over at Politico, that sharp-suited scribbler who's usually got a nose for nonsense, tweeted it straight: "Sources: Reeves always eyed allowances over hikes; OBR black hole down to £18bn. No U-turn, just evolution." No questions asked, no "hang on, why the gilt spike if it's all tickety-boo?" It's as if the press pack's been slipped a collective roofie, nodding along to the Treasury's tune while the markets scream "bollocks!" from the rooftops. Even the Guardian's got a puff piece framing it as "nimble navigation." Nimble? More like a three-legged race in a gale.

The Bigger Picture: Starmer and Reeves – A Duo Diving for Cover in a Circular Firing Squad

Strip away the smoke and mirrors, and what you've got is a government gasping for air, five months in, with the PM and his chancellor looking like they've lost the dressing room – and the plot. Starmer's "mission-led" guff is curdling faster than milk in a heatwave, and Reeves' iron lady schtick? It's rusting before our eyes. This 24-hour spasm isn't isolated; it's the bleed from a thousand cuts – from the winter fuel pensioner punch to the farmer-flaying inheritance tax raid. Lost control? Mate, they've mislaid the keys to the kingdom.

Mark my words: if this Budget wobble's the canary, the coalmine's caving in. Expect more leaks, more lurches, and a Spring Statement that's less statement, more surrender.

Fancy arming yourself against the Westminster woozle? I can't bang on enough about How Westminster Works... and Why It Doesn't by Ian Dunt – a scalpel to the heart of this shambles, available on Amazon via my affiliate link right here. For a deeper dive into fiscal fibs, snag Chris Mullin's A Very British Coup – the blueprint for how backbench revolts topple titans (grab it here). And if you're plotting your own escape from the taxman's grasp, this no-nonsense guide to allowances and loopholes is gold (Amazon pick).

Spill the beans in the comments below – is this the beginning of the end for Reeves, or just another Wednesday in Labour's house of cards? Share this far and wide, and if you're fuming, give your MP a ring via TheyWorkForYou.org. Let's keep the PalArse roasting these risible rogues.

Ken Frost is the chief arsonist behind The PalArse of Westminster and the Ken Frost syndicate of sites. More madness – from fiscal farces to full English fry-ups – over at www.kenfrost.net. Follow the frolics on X @ken_frost.