During the pandemic the government allowed itself to become prisoner of SAGE, and based its response (lockdowns which wrecked the economy) on the dire forecasts of SAGE.
As we came to learn, forecasts (especially SAGE forecasts) were based on assumptions and variables that if tweaked, would produce totally different outcomes. Sadly the government lost its balls, and allowed policy to be dictated by SAGE and the hysterical media (egged on by SAGE).
Unfortunately the government is about to make the same mistake, this time financially; by slavishly following the forecasts of the OBR (set by by Brown). The OBR have forecast a whopping black hole of approximately £50BN. Yet the OBR has a track record of being wrong.
Given that the economy was wrecked by the SAGE dictated lockdowns, and has been further pummelled by Putin, it is hardly surprising that things are not as they could be. However, as with SAGE, if you tweak the assumptions and variables within the OBR forecasts the black hole can be made to almost disappear.
To raise taxes when we are heading into recession is going to make matters worse. The government needs to grow a pair, and stand up to the OBR.
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